Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Valenciennes vs Bastia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Valenciennes
Valenciennes
CANC
00:00
Bastia
Bastia
7/10/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Valenciennes45%
×Draw23%
Bastia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valenciennes
1.80
Bastia
1.50

Valenciennes creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Valenciennes
1.60
Bastia
2.00

allows per match

Valenciennes
1.00
Bastia
2.00

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw
68%
Valenciennes or Bastia
77%
Draw or Bastia
55%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+
24%
Bastia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals
83%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
54%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
27%
Bastia 1+ goals
78%
Bastia 2+ goals
44%
Bastia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)
58%
Bastia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.60 + Bastia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bastia attack 2.00 + Valenciennes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Valenciennes scores more
45%
level
23%
Bastia scores more
32%

Valenciennes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valenciennes face Bastia (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Valenciennes hosting Bastia. Match starts July 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Valenciennes host Bastia at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.