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Valenciano vs Vianense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Valenciano
Valenciano
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Vianense
Vianense
8/31/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1/128-finalsEstádio Dr. Lourenço Raimundo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Valenciano5%
×Draw9%
Vianense86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valenciano
0.85
Vianense
3.71

Vianense creates 336% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Valenciano
1.00
Vianense
2.43

allows per match

Valenciano
5.00
Vianense
0.71

finishing

Valenciano+0.00on par
Vianense+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciano ↓

Vianense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Valenciano or draw
14%
Valenciano or Vianense
91%
Draw or Vianense
95%

Winning margin

Valenciano wins by 2+
1%
Vianense wins by 2+
71%

Team goals

Valenciano 1+ goals
57%
Valenciano 2+ goals
21%
Valenciano 3+ goals
5%
Vianense 1+ goals
97%
Vianense 2+ goals
87%
Vianense 3+ goals
69%

Draw no bet

Valenciano (draw refunded)
5%
Vianense (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

Vianense away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciano attack 1.00 + Vianense defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Vianense attack 2.43 + Valenciano defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Valenciano scores more
5%
level
9%
Vianense scores more
86%

Vianense at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Vianense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valenciano vs Vianense

Vianense beat Valenciano 4-1 in Taça de Portugal on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Lourenço Raimundo in Valença do Minho.