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Valenciano vs Merelinense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Valenciano
Valenciano
FT
2 – 4
Merelinense
Merelinense
9/11/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Dr. Lourenço Raimundo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Valenciano7%
×Draw11%
Merelinense82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valenciano
0.90
Merelinense
3.30

Merelinense creates 267% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Valenciano
1.00
Merelinense
1.60

allows per match

Valenciano
5.00
Merelinense
0.80

finishing

Valenciano+0.00on par
Merelinense+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciano ↓

Merelinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–29%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Valenciano or draw
18%
Valenciano or Merelinense
89%
Draw or Merelinense
93%

Winning margin

Valenciano wins by 2+
2%
Merelinense wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Valenciano 1+ goals
59%
Valenciano 2+ goals
23%
Valenciano 3+ goals
6%
Merelinense 1+ goals
96%
Merelinense 2+ goals
83%
Merelinense 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Valenciano (draw refunded)
8%
Merelinense (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

Merelinense away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciano attack 1.00 + Merelinense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Merelinense attack 1.60 + Valenciano defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Valenciano scores more
7%
level
11%
Merelinense scores more
82%

Merelinense at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Merelinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Valenciano 2–4 Merelinense

Merelinense beat Valenciano 4-2 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Lourenço Raimundo in Valença do Minho.