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Valencia W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Valencia W
Valencia W
Preview
15:00
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
10/4/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 6Estadio Antonio Puchades
Big match
42%
Real Sociedad W
model favours
34%24%42%

Valencia W win just 13% against the top half (vs 40% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Valencia W34%
×Draw24%
Real Sociedad W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia W
1.44
Real Sociedad W
1.61

Real Sociedad W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 119 away

creates per match

Valencia W
1.41
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Valencia W
1.57
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Valencia W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Valencia W or draw
58%
Valencia W or Real Sociedad W
76%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
66%

Winning margin

Valencia W wins by 2+
16%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Valencia W 1+ goals
76%
Valencia W 2+ goals
42%
Valencia W 3+ goals
18%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
80%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
48%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Valencia W (draw refunded)
45%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 103 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia W attack 1.41 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Valencia W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Valencia W scores more
34%
level
24%
Real Sociedad W scores more
42%

Real Sociedad W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Valencia W
Balanced
Real Sociedad W
Balanced
45%Possession54%
71%Pass accuracy78%
9.9ShotsBiggest gap12.7
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Valencia WReal Sociedad W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Valencia W
1
Draws
6
Real Sociedad W
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 40%
2–00–23–00–20–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DDWWL
W
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valencia W face Real Sociedad W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Valencia W hosting Real Sociedad W. Match starts October 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Valencia W host Real Sociedad W at Estadio Antonio Puchades.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.