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Real Sociedad W vs Valencia W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valencia W
Valencia W
S. Jensen 47', 6'
11/25/2023Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 10Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Real Sociedad W56%
×Draw22%
Valencia W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
1.89
Valencia W
1.10

Real Sociedad W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 105 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Valencia W
0.94

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Valencia W
1.91

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Valencia W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Valencia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
78%
Real Sociedad W or Valencia W
78%
Draw or Valencia W
44%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
32%
Valencia W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
85%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
56%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
29%
Valencia W 1+ goals
67%
Valencia W 2+ goals
30%
Valencia W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
72%
Valencia W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Valencia W away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Valencia W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.89

Valencia W attack 0.94 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
56%
level
22%
Valencia W scores more
22%

Real Sociedad W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
S. JensenReal Sociedad WReal Sociedad W · F
8.3

Match Events

6'
S. Jensen↳ S. Franssi
22'
Sanni Franssi
27'
Kerlly Real
47'
S. Jensen
55'
L. Serna← Marta Carro
55'
I. Chacón← Marina Martí
65'
Lorena Navarro← S. Jensen
71'
Manuela Vanegas
72'
Sara Tamarit← K. Real
72'
J. López← Pauleta
77'
Emma Ramírez← Mirari Uria
79'
Manuela Vanegas
79'
Manuela Vanegas
82'
Ana Tejada← Nerea Eizagirre
85'
Estela Fernández← María Molina
86'
Jimena López

Possession

50%Real

Shots

13Real

Pass accuracy

52%Real

Statistics

RealValencia
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots14
3Corners5
11Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots14
4On Target5
4Off Target5
5Blocked4
10Inside Box8
3Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
358Total Passes336
265Accurate Passes231
74%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Primera División Femenina: Real Sociedad W 2–0 Valencia W

Real Sociedad W beat Valencia W 2-0 in Primera División Femenina on November 25, 2023.

Goals: S. Jensen (6', 47').

Real Sociedad W controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.