Valencia W 1–3 Real Sociedad W: Result & Stats

Valencia W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Real Sociedad W

6/27/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 34Estadio Luis Suñer Picó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Valencia W34%

×Draw24%

Real Sociedad W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valencia WExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.61

Valencia W

1.44

Real Sociedad W

1.61

Real Sociedad W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 119 away

1.41

creates per match

1.65

1.57

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Valencia W

1.41

Real Sociedad W

1.65

allows per match

Valencia W

1.57

Real Sociedad W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valencia W+0.00on par

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia W ↓

Real Sociedad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Valencia W or draw

58%

Valencia W or Real Sociedad W

76%

Draw or Real Sociedad W

66%

Winning margin

Valencia W wins by 2+

16%

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Valencia W 1+ goals

76%

Valencia W 2+ goals

42%

Valencia W 3+ goals

18%

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

80%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

48%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Valencia W (draw refunded)

45%

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 103 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia W attack 1.41 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Valencia W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Valencia W scores more

34%

level

24%

Real Sociedad W scores more

42%

Real Sociedad W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff