Valencia 3–4 Atalanta: Result & Stats

Valencia

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Atalanta

Ferran Torres 67'

K. Gameiro 51', 21'

J. Iličić 82', 71', 43' (pen), 3' (pen)

3/10/2020

UEFA Champions League · 8th FinalsEstadio de Mestalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Valencia41%

×Draw21%

Atalanta38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciaExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.86

Valencia

1.94

Atalanta

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

2.00

creates per match

1.72

2.00

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Valencia

2.00

Atalanta

1.72

allows per match

Valencia

2.00

Atalanta

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valencia+0.00on par

Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Valencia or draw

62%

Valencia or Atalanta

79%

Draw or Atalanta

59%

Winning margin

Valencia wins by 2+

22%

Atalanta wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Valencia 1+ goals

86%

Valencia 2+ goals

58%

Valencia 3+ goals

30%

Atalanta 1+ goals

84%

Atalanta 2+ goals

55%

Atalanta 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Valencia (draw refunded)

52%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia attack 2.00 + Atalanta defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.94

Atalanta attack 1.72 + Valencia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Valencia scores more

41%

level

21%

Atalanta scores more

38%

Valencia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

72

Josip Iličić

Atalanta · F

10.0

Match Events

3'

J. IličićPenalty

21'

K. Gameiro

33'

Francis Coquelin

42'

Mouctar Diakhaby

43'

J. IličićPenalty

45'

D. Zapata← M. de Roon

46'

Gonçalo Guedes← M. Diakhaby

51'

K. Gameiro↳ Ferran Torres

58'

Geoffrey Kondogbia

64'

Daniel Wass

67'

Ferran Torres↳ Dani Parejo

71'

J. Iličić

74'

D. Cheryshev← F. Coquelin

78'

R. Malinovskiy← A. Gómez

79'

A. Florenzi← Rodrigo

82'

J. Iličić↳ R. Freuler

83'

A. Tameze← M. Pašalić

85'

Remo Freuler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValenciaAtalanta

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots11

9Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots11

7On Target5

6Off Target4

3Blocked2

7Inside Box9

9Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

528Total Passes364

427Accurate Passes266

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1