Valencia U19 0–1 Juventus U19: Result & Stats

Valencia U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Juventus U19

E. Petrelli 70'

9/19/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Estadio Antonio Puchades (Paterna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Valencia U1925%

×Draw21%

Juventus U1954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valencia U19Expected goals in this matchJuventus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

2.13

Valencia U19

1.40

Juventus U19

2.13

Juventus U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

1.17

creates per match

2.25

2.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Valencia U19

1.17

Juventus U19

2.25

allows per match

Valencia U19

2.00

Juventus U19

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valencia U19+0.00on par

Juventus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia U19 ↓

Juventus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Valencia U19 or draw

46%

Valencia U19 or Juventus U19

79%

Draw or Juventus U19

75%

Winning margin

Valencia U19 wins by 2+

11%

Juventus U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Valencia U19 1+ goals

75%

Valencia U19 2+ goals

41%

Valencia U19 3+ goals

17%

Juventus U19 1+ goals

88%

Juventus U19 2+ goals

63%

Juventus U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Valencia U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Juventus U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia U19 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Juventus U19 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia U19 attack 1.17 + Juventus U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Juventus U19 attack 2.25 + Valencia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Valencia U19 scores more

25%

level

21%

Juventus U19 scores more

54%

Juventus U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juventus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

B. Morrone← C. Makoun

62'

Sergio Juan← Vazquez Alcalde

62'

P. Gozzi Iweru← João Serrão

68'

Martín Lapeña← Ricardo da Costa Campos

68'

Perez Martinez← Pablo Jiménez

70'

E. Petrelli

72'

Óscar Poveda← Molina Gutiérrez

79'

N. Frederiksen← M. Portanova

79'

N. Francofonte← Pablo Moreno

90'

F. Heubang← N. Fagioli

Valencia

Juventus

1

Loria

3

Anzolin

4

▼

Serrão

7

Fonseca

15

▼

Makoun

6

Capellini

18

▼

Portanova

11

▼

Fagioli

14

Caviglia

9

⚽

Petrelli

10

▼

1

4

6

5

2

▼

Gutiérrez

3

▼

Alcalde

8

Pascual

10

Kangin

11

▼

Campos

9

Escobar

7

▼

Jiménez

Manager: Mista

62'▲Sergio Juan←▼Vazquez Alcalde

68'▲Martín Lapeña←▼Ricardo da Costa Campos

68'▲Perez Martinez←▼Pablo Jiménez

72'▲Óscar Poveda←▼Molina Gutiérrez

Valencia U19 substitutes

12Juan16Lapeña18Martinez14Poveda15Sanchez13Huesca17Garre

Manager: F. Baldini

46'▲B. Morrone←▼C. Makoun

62'▲P. Gozzi Iweru←▼João Serrão

79'▲N. Frederiksen←▼M. Portanova

79'▲N. Francofonte←▼Pablo Moreno

90'▲F. Heubang←▼N. Fagioli

Juventus U19 substitutes

5Morrone16Iweru20Frederiksen8Francofonte13Heubang2Meneghini12Siano

UEFA Youth League: Valencia U19 0–1 Juventus U19

Juventus U19 beat Valencia U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on September 19, 2018.

Goals: E. Petrelli (70').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades (Paterna).

Valencia U19 vs Juventus U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Valencia U19 0–1 Juventus U19