Valencia U19 2–1 Chelsea U19: Result & Stats

Valencia U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chelsea U19

Jordi Escobar 76'

Joseda 19'

H. Lawrence 25'

11/27/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Valencia U1930%

×Draw22%

Chelsea U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valencia U19Expected goals in this matchChelsea U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.97

Valencia U19

1.52

Chelsea U19

1.97

Chelsea U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

1.17

creates per match

1.94

2.00

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Valencia U19

1.17

Chelsea U19

1.94

allows per match

Valencia U19

2.00

Chelsea U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valencia U19+0.00on par

Chelsea U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia U19 ↓

Chelsea U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Valencia U19 or draw

52%

Valencia U19 or Chelsea U19

78%

Draw or Chelsea U19

70%

Winning margin

Valencia U19 wins by 2+

14%

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Valencia U19 1+ goals

78%

Valencia U19 2+ goals

45%

Valencia U19 3+ goals

20%

Chelsea U19 1+ goals

86%

Chelsea U19 2+ goals

58%

Chelsea U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Valencia U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia U19 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Chelsea U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia U19 attack 1.17 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chelsea U19 attack 1.94 + Valencia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Valencia U19 scores more

30%

level

22%

Chelsea U19 scores more

48%

Chelsea U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chelsea U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Joseda

25'

H. Lawrence↳ L. Bate

45'

J. Vazquez

61'

Nacho Muñoz← Antonio García

68'

David Montero← Jesús Vázquez

68'

Gaston Alonso← Hugo González

69'

M. Peart-Harris← L. Bate

76'

Jordi Escobar

79'

G. Nunn← T. Ballo

87'

J. Menargues

89'

P. Gozalbez

90+2'

Jose Lechon← Y. Musah

90+2'

N. Nlandu← Pablo Gozálbez

Valencia

Chelsea

1

3

2

5

4

11

▼

Ballo

6

Gilmour

10

Anjorin

7

⚽

Lawrence

8

A

▼

9

1

2

3

▼

Vázquez

5

⚽

Joseda

4

Bosch

6

▼

Musah

8

Koindredi

10

▼

Gozálbez

11

▼

García

7

▼

González

9

⚽

Escobar

Manager: Miguel Angulo

61'▲Nacho Muñoz←▼Antonio García

68'▲David Montero←▼Jesús Vázquez

68'▲Gaston Alonso←▼Hugo González

90+2'▲Jose Lechon←▼Y. Musah

90+2'▲N. Nlandu←▼Pablo Gozálbez

Valencia U19 substitutes

18Muñoz15Montero14Alonso16Lechon17Nlandu12Sierra13Vicente

Manager: A. Myers

69'▲M. Peart-Harris←▼L. Bate

79'▲G. Nunn←▼T. Ballo

Chelsea U19 substitutes

16Peart-Harris14Nunn17McClelland13Tié12Simeu15Lewis18Simons

UEFA Youth League: Valencia U19 2–1 Chelsea U19

Valencia U19 beat Chelsea U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 27, 2019.

Goals: Joseda (19'), H. Lawrence (25'), Jordi Escobar (76').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades in Paterna.

Valencia U19 vs Chelsea U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Valencia U19 2–1 Chelsea U19