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Valencia II vs Orihuela — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Valencia II
Valencia II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Orihuela
Orihuela
1/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 21Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Valencia II61%
×Draw22%
Orihuela17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia II
1.86
Orihuela
0.85

Valencia II creates 119% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

creates per match

Valencia II
2.67
Orihuela
1.15

allows per match

Valencia II
0.56
Orihuela
1.06

finishing

Valencia II+0.00on par
Orihuela+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia II ↓

Orihuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Valencia II or draw
83%
Valencia II or Orihuela
78%
Draw or Orihuela
39%

Winning margin

Valencia II wins by 2+
36%
Orihuela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Valencia II 1+ goals
84%
Valencia II 2+ goals
55%
Valencia II 3+ goals
28%
Orihuela 1+ goals
57%
Orihuela 2+ goals
21%
Orihuela 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Valencia II (draw refunded)
79%
Orihuela (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Orihuela away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia II attack 2.67 + Orihuela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.86

Orihuela attack 1.15 + Valencia II defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Valencia II scores more
61%
level
22%
Orihuela scores more
17%

Valencia II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Valencia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Valencia II 5–2 Orihuela

Valencia II beat Orihuela 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades in Paterna.