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Valencia II vs Callosa Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Valencia II
Valencia II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Callosa Deportiva
Callosa Deportiva
3/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 29Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Valencia II70%
×Draw20%
Callosa Deportiva10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia II
1.98
Callosa Deportiva
0.61

Valencia II creates 225% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Valencia II
2.67
Callosa Deportiva
0.67

allows per match

Valencia II
0.56
Callosa Deportiva
1.28

finishing

Valencia II+0.00on par
Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia II ↓

Callosa Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Valencia II or draw
90%
Valencia II or Callosa Deportiva
80%
Draw or Callosa Deportiva
30%

Winning margin

Valencia II wins by 2+
44%
Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Valencia II 1+ goals
86%
Valencia II 2+ goals
59%
Valencia II 3+ goals
31%
Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals
46%
Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals
13%
Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Valencia II (draw refunded)
87%
Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Callosa Deportiva away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia II attack 2.67 + Callosa Deportiva defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.98

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.67 + Valencia II defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Valencia II scores more
70%
level
20%
Callosa Deportiva scores more
10%

Valencia II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Valencia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valencia II vs Callosa Deportiva

Valencia II beat Callosa Deportiva 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades in Paterna.