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Valencia II vs Acero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Valencia II
Valencia II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Acero
Acero
4/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 36Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Valencia II68%
×Draw20%
Acero11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia II
1.98
Acero
0.66

Valencia II creates 200% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

creates per match

Valencia II
2.67
Acero
0.75

allows per match

Valencia II
0.56
Acero
1.29

finishing

Valencia II+0.00on par
Acero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia II ↓

Acero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Valencia II or draw
89%
Valencia II or Acero
80%
Draw or Acero
32%

Winning margin

Valencia II wins by 2+
43%
Acero wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Valencia II 1+ goals
86%
Valencia II 2+ goals
59%
Valencia II 3+ goals
31%
Acero 1+ goals
48%
Acero 2+ goals
14%
Acero 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Valencia II (draw refunded)
86%
Acero (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Acero away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia II attack 2.67 + Acero defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Acero attack 0.75 + Valencia II defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Valencia II scores more
68%
level
20%
Acero scores more
11%

Valencia II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Valencia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valencia II vs Acero

Valencia II beat Acero 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Puchades in Paterna.