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Valdivia vs Trujillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Valdivia
Valdivia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Trujillo
Trujillo
5/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Municipal Primero de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Valdivia27%
×Draw24%
Trujillo48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdivia
1.17
Trujillo
1.64

Trujillo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 92 away

creates per match

Valdivia
0.97
Trujillo
1.03

allows per match

Valdivia
2.24
Trujillo
1.37

finishing

Valdivia+0.00on par
Trujillo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdivia ↓

Trujillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Valdivia or draw
52%
Valdivia or Trujillo
76%
Draw or Trujillo
73%

Winning margin

Valdivia wins by 2+
11%
Trujillo wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Valdivia 1+ goals
69%
Valdivia 2+ goals
33%
Valdivia 3+ goals
11%
Trujillo 1+ goals
81%
Trujillo 2+ goals
49%
Trujillo 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Valdivia (draw refunded)
36%
Trujillo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdivia at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Trujillo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdivia attack 0.97 + Trujillo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Trujillo attack 1.03 + Valdivia defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Valdivia scores more
27%
level
24%
Trujillo scores more
48%

Trujillo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trujillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Valdivia 2–3 Trujillo

Trujillo beat Valdivia 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Primero de Mayo in Valdivia.