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Valdivia vs Fuente Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Valdivia
Valdivia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
5/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Municipal Primero de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Valdivia32%
×Draw25%
Fuente Cantos43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdivia
1.32
Fuente Cantos
1.57

Fuente Cantos creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 61 away

creates per match

Valdivia
0.97
Fuente Cantos
0.89

allows per match

Valdivia
2.24
Fuente Cantos
1.67

finishing

Valdivia+0.00on par
Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdivia ↓

Fuente Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Valdivia or draw
57%
Valdivia or Fuente Cantos
75%
Draw or Fuente Cantos
68%

Winning margin

Valdivia wins by 2+
14%
Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Valdivia 1+ goals
73%
Valdivia 2+ goals
38%
Valdivia 3+ goals
15%
Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
79%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
46%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Valdivia (draw refunded)
43%
Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdivia at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdivia attack 0.97 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Valdivia defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valdivia scores more
32%
level
25%
Fuente Cantos scores more
43%

Fuente Cantos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fuente Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Valdivia 3–1 Fuente Cantos

Valdivia beat Fuente Cantos 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Primero de Mayo in Valdivia.