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Valdivia vs Diocesano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Valdivia
Valdivia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Diocesano
Diocesano
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 18Estadio Municipal Primero de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Valdivia24%
×Draw23%
Diocesano53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdivia
1.17
Diocesano
1.83

Diocesano creates 56% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Valdivia
0.97
Diocesano
1.42

allows per match

Valdivia
2.24
Diocesano
1.38

finishing

Valdivia+0.00on par
Diocesano+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdivia ↓

Diocesano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Valdivia or draw
47%
Valdivia or Diocesano
77%
Draw or Diocesano
76%

Winning margin

Valdivia wins by 2+
10%
Diocesano wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Valdivia 1+ goals
69%
Valdivia 2+ goals
33%
Valdivia 3+ goals
11%
Diocesano 1+ goals
84%
Diocesano 2+ goals
54%
Diocesano 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Valdivia (draw refunded)
32%
Diocesano (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdivia at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Diocesano away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdivia attack 0.97 + Diocesano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Diocesano attack 1.42 + Valdivia defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Valdivia scores more
24%
level
23%
Diocesano scores more
53%

Diocesano at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Diocesano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Valdivia 1–3 Diocesano

Diocesano beat Valdivia 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Primero de Mayo in Valdivia.