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Valdivia vs Arroyo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Valdivia
Valdivia
CANC
00:00
Arroyo
Arroyo
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 31Estadio Municipal Primero de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Valdivia28%
×Draw25%
Arroyo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdivia
1.17
Arroyo
1.57

Arroyo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 90 away

creates per match

Valdivia
0.97
Arroyo
0.89

allows per match

Valdivia
2.24
Arroyo
1.37

finishing

Valdivia+0.00on par
Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdivia ↓

Arroyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Valdivia or draw
53%
Valdivia or Arroyo
75%
Draw or Arroyo
72%

Winning margin

Valdivia wins by 2+
11%
Arroyo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Valdivia 1+ goals
69%
Valdivia 2+ goals
33%
Valdivia 3+ goals
11%
Arroyo 1+ goals
79%
Arroyo 2+ goals
46%
Arroyo 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Valdivia (draw refunded)
38%
Arroyo (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdivia at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdivia attack 0.97 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Arroyo attack 0.89 + Valdivia defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Valdivia scores more
28%
level
25%
Arroyo scores more
47%

Arroyo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arroyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valdivia face Arroyo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 returns with Valdivia hosting Arroyo. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Valdivia host Arroyo at Estadio Municipal Primero de Mayo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.