Valdesoto 1–2 Urraca: Result & Stats

Valdesoto

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Urraca

S. Barbaro 62'

Javier Alonso 65'

Javier Meana 4'

10/18/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Villarea. Valdesoto C.F.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Valdesoto26%

×Draw28%

Urraca46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValdesotoExpected goals in this matchUrraca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.31

Valdesoto

0.91

Urraca

1.31

Urraca creates 44% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 79 away

0.69

creates per match

0.86

1.76

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Valdesoto

0.69

Urraca

0.86

allows per match

Valdesoto

1.76

Urraca

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valdesoto+0.00on par

Urraca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdesoto ↓

Urraca →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Valdesoto or draw

54%

Valdesoto or Urraca

72%

Draw or Urraca

74%

Winning margin

Valdesoto wins by 2+

Urraca wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Valdesoto 1+ goals

60%

Valdesoto 2+ goals

23%

Valdesoto 3+ goals

Urraca 1+ goals

73%

Urraca 2+ goals

38%

Urraca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Valdesoto (draw refunded)

36%

Urraca (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valdesoto at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

Urraca away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valdesoto attack 0.69 + Urraca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Urraca attack 0.86 + Valdesoto defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valdesoto scores more

26%

level

28%

Urraca scores more

46%

Urraca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Urraca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Javier Meana

46'

S. Barbaro← Aitor Díaz

59'

Álex Padrón← Andres Diaz

59'

Mario Peña← Pablo Riesgo

62'

S. Barbaro

65'

Javier Alonso

73'

Álvaro García← Alex Sandoval

80'

Barragáns← Roberto Villa

82'

Rubén Expósito← Pablo Miranda

85'

Illán Fernandez← Miguel Fernandez

88'

Adrian Toyos← José Vega

Valdesoto

Urraca

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Daniel Martinez

46'▲S. Barbaro←▼Aitor Díaz

59'▲Álex Padrón←▼Andres Diaz

59'▲Mario Peña←▼Pablo Riesgo

80'▲Barragáns←▼Roberto Villa

85'▲Illán Fernandez←▼Miguel Fernandez

Valdesoto substitutes

BarbaroPadrónPeñaBarragánsFernandez

Manager: Pablo Detori

73'▲Álvaro García←▼Alex Sandoval

82'▲Rubén Expósito←▼Pablo Miranda

88'▲Adrian Toyos←▼José Vega

Urraca substitutes

GarcíaExpósitoToyos

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Valdesoto 1–2 Urraca

Urraca beat Valdesoto 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 18, 2020.

Goals: Javier Meana (4'), S. Barbaro (62'), Javier Alonso (65').

The match was played at Estadio Villarea. Valdesoto C.F. in Asturias.

Valdesoto vs Urraca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Valdesoto 1–2 Urraca