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Valdesoto vs Colunga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Valdesoto
Valdesoto
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colunga
Colunga
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio Villarea. Valdesoto C.F.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Valdesoto27%
×Draw27%
Colunga46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdesoto
1.02
Colunga
1.40

Colunga creates 37% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

creates per match

Valdesoto
0.69
Colunga
1.04

allows per match

Valdesoto
1.76
Colunga
1.34

finishing

Valdesoto+0.00on par
Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdesoto ↓

Colunga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Valdesoto or draw
54%
Valdesoto or Colunga
73%
Draw or Colunga
73%

Winning margin

Valdesoto wins by 2+
10%
Colunga wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Valdesoto 1+ goals
64%
Valdesoto 2+ goals
27%
Valdesoto 3+ goals
8%
Colunga 1+ goals
75%
Colunga 2+ goals
41%
Colunga 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Valdesoto (draw refunded)
38%
Colunga (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdesoto at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdesoto attack 0.69 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Colunga attack 1.04 + Valdesoto defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valdesoto scores more
27%
level
27%
Colunga scores more
46%

Colunga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valdesoto vs Colunga

Valdesoto and Colunga drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Villarea. Valdesoto C.F. in Asturias.