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Valdesoto vs Ceares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Valdesoto
Valdesoto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ceares
Ceares
3/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Villarea. Valdesoto C.F.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Valdesoto24%
×Draw26%
Ceares50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdesoto
0.94
Ceares
1.48

Ceares creates 57% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Valdesoto
0.69
Ceares
1.20

allows per match

Valdesoto
1.76
Ceares
1.19

finishing

Valdesoto+0.00on par
Ceares+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdesoto ↓

Ceares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Valdesoto or draw
50%
Valdesoto or Ceares
74%
Draw or Ceares
76%

Winning margin

Valdesoto wins by 2+
8%
Ceares wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Valdesoto 1+ goals
61%
Valdesoto 2+ goals
24%
Valdesoto 3+ goals
7%
Ceares 1+ goals
77%
Ceares 2+ goals
43%
Ceares 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Valdesoto (draw refunded)
33%
Ceares (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdesoto at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

Ceares away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdesoto attack 0.69 + Ceares defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ceares attack 1.20 + Valdesoto defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Valdesoto scores more
24%
level
26%
Ceares scores more
50%

Ceares at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ceares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Valdesoto 1–2 Ceares

Ceares beat Valdesoto 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Villarea. Valdesoto C.F. in Asturias.