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Valdepeñas vs Noblejas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Valdepeñas
Valdepeñas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Noblejas
Noblejas
2/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 22Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valdepeñas44%
×Draw25%
Noblejas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdepeñas
1.53
Noblejas
1.24

Valdepeñas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Valdepeñas
0.65
Noblejas
1.12

allows per match

Valdepeñas
1.35
Noblejas
2.41

finishing

Valdepeñas+0.00on par
Noblejas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdepeñas ↓

Noblejas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Valdepeñas or draw
69%
Valdepeñas or Noblejas
75%
Draw or Noblejas
56%

Winning margin

Valdepeñas wins by 2+
22%
Noblejas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Valdepeñas 1+ goals
78%
Valdepeñas 2+ goals
45%
Valdepeñas 3+ goals
20%
Noblejas 1+ goals
71%
Noblejas 2+ goals
35%
Noblejas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Valdepeñas (draw refunded)
59%
Noblejas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdepeñas at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Noblejas away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdepeñas attack 0.65 + Noblejas defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Noblejas attack 1.12 + Valdepeñas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valdepeñas scores more
44%
level
25%
Noblejas scores more
31%

Valdepeñas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valdepeñas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valdepeñas vs Noblejas

Valdepeñas beat Noblejas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas in Valdepeñas.