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Valdepeñas vs Huracán Balazote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Valdepeñas
Valdepeñas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Huracán Balazote
Huracán Balazote
12/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valdepeñas33%
×Draw29%
Huracán Balazote38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdepeñas
1.04
Huracán Balazote
1.15

Huracán Balazote creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

Valdepeñas
0.65
Huracán Balazote
0.95

allows per match

Valdepeñas
1.35
Huracán Balazote
1.44

finishing

Valdepeñas+0.00on par
Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdepeñas ↓

Huracán Balazote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Valdepeñas or draw
62%
Valdepeñas or Huracán Balazote
71%
Draw or Huracán Balazote
67%

Winning margin

Valdepeñas wins by 2+
13%
Huracán Balazote wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Valdepeñas 1+ goals
65%
Valdepeñas 2+ goals
28%
Valdepeñas 3+ goals
9%
Huracán Balazote 1+ goals
68%
Huracán Balazote 2+ goals
32%
Huracán Balazote 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Valdepeñas (draw refunded)
46%
Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdepeñas at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdepeñas attack 0.65 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Valdepeñas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valdepeñas scores more
33%
level
29%
Huracán Balazote scores more
38%

Huracán Balazote at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huracán Balazote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valdepeñas vs Huracán Balazote

Huracán Balazote beat Valdepeñas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas in Valdepeñas.