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Valdepeñas vs Azuqueca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Valdepeñas
Valdepeñas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Azuqueca
Azuqueca
1/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 19Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valdepeñas32%
×Draw29%
Azuqueca39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdepeñas
1.04
Azuqueca
1.17

Azuqueca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 112 away

creates per match

Valdepeñas
0.65
Azuqueca
0.99

allows per match

Valdepeñas
1.35
Azuqueca
1.43

finishing

Valdepeñas+0.00on par
Azuqueca+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdepeñas ↓

Azuqueca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Valdepeñas or draw
61%
Valdepeñas or Azuqueca
71%
Draw or Azuqueca
68%

Winning margin

Valdepeñas wins by 2+
12%
Azuqueca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Valdepeñas 1+ goals
65%
Valdepeñas 2+ goals
28%
Valdepeñas 3+ goals
9%
Azuqueca 1+ goals
69%
Azuqueca 2+ goals
33%
Azuqueca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Valdepeñas (draw refunded)
45%
Azuqueca (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdepeñas at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Azuqueca away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdepeñas attack 0.65 + Azuqueca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.04

Azuqueca attack 0.99 + Valdepeñas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valdepeñas scores more
32%
level
29%
Azuqueca scores more
39%

Azuqueca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Azuqueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Valdepeñas 0–1 Azuqueca

Azuqueca beat Valdepeñas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas in Valdepeñas.