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Valdepeñas vs Albacete II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Valdepeñas
Valdepeñas
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Albacete II
Albacete II
5/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 34Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valdepeñas24%
×Draw28%
Albacete II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdepeñas
0.87
Albacete II
1.36

Albacete II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Valdepeñas
0.65
Albacete II
1.38

allows per match

Valdepeñas
1.35
Albacete II
1.09

finishing

Valdepeñas+0.00on par
Albacete II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdepeñas ↓

Albacete II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Valdepeñas or draw
52%
Valdepeñas or Albacete II
72%
Draw or Albacete II
76%

Winning margin

Valdepeñas wins by 2+
8%
Albacete II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Valdepeñas 1+ goals
58%
Valdepeñas 2+ goals
22%
Valdepeñas 3+ goals
6%
Albacete II 1+ goals
74%
Albacete II 2+ goals
39%
Albacete II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Valdepeñas (draw refunded)
33%
Albacete II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdepeñas at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Albacete II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdepeñas attack 0.65 + Albacete II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.87

Albacete II attack 1.38 + Valdepeñas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Valdepeñas scores more
24%
level
28%
Albacete II scores more
48%

Albacete II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valdepeñas 1 – 4 Albacete II

Albacete II beat Valdepeñas 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Valdepeñas in Valdepeñas.