Valdefierro 1–1 Real Zaragoza II: Result & Stats

Valdefierro

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Zaragoza II

2/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Valdefierro29%

×Draw26%

Real Zaragoza II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValdefierroExpected goals in this matchReal Zaragoza II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.43

Valdefierro

1.10

Real Zaragoza II

1.43

Real Zaragoza II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 44 away

1.32

creates per match

1.30

1.55

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Valdefierro

1.32

Real Zaragoza II

1.30

allows per match

Valdefierro

1.55

Real Zaragoza II

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par

Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Real Zaragoza II →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw

55%

Valdefierro or Real Zaragoza II

74%

Draw or Real Zaragoza II

71%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+

11%

Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals

67%

Valdefierro 2+ goals

30%

Valdefierro 3+ goals

10%

Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals

76%

Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals

42%

Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)

39%

Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Real Zaragoza II away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Real Zaragoza II attack 1.30 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Valdefierro scores more

29%

level

26%

Real Zaragoza II scores more

45%

Real Zaragoza II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Valdefierro 1–1 Real Zaragoza II

Valdefierro and Real Zaragoza II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 24, 2021.

The match was played at CDM Valdefierro in Zaragoza.

Valdefierro vs Real Zaragoza II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Valdefierro 1–1 Real Zaragoza II