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Valdefierro vs Cuarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Valdefierro
Valdefierro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cuarte
Cuarte
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 7CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Valdefierro32%
×Draw27%
Cuarte40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdefierro
1.14
Cuarte
1.31

Cuarte creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 112 away

creates per match

Valdefierro
1.32
Cuarte
1.08

allows per match

Valdefierro
1.55
Cuarte
0.96

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par
Cuarte+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Cuarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw
60%
Valdefierro or Cuarte
73%
Draw or Cuarte
68%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+
13%
Cuarte wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals
68%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
32%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
11%
Cuarte 1+ goals
73%
Cuarte 2+ goals
38%
Cuarte 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)
44%
Cuarte (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Cuarte away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Cuarte defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cuarte attack 1.08 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Valdefierro scores more
32%
level
27%
Cuarte scores more
40%

Cuarte at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cuarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valdefierro vs Cuarte

Cuarte beat Valdefierro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at CDM Valdefierro in Zaragoza.