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Valdefierro vs Calamocha — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Valdefierro
Valdefierro
CANC
00:00
Calamocha
Calamocha
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 34CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Valdefierro35%
×Draw27%
Calamocha38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdefierro
1.20
Calamocha
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 110 away

creates per match

Valdefierro
1.32
Calamocha
1.01

allows per match

Valdefierro
1.55
Calamocha
1.07

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par
Calamocha+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Calamocha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw
62%
Valdefierro or Calamocha
73%
Draw or Calamocha
65%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+
15%
Calamocha wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals
70%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
34%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
12%
Calamocha 1+ goals
72%
Calamocha 2+ goals
37%
Calamocha 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)
47%
Calamocha (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Calamocha away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Calamocha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Calamocha attack 1.01 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valdefierro scores more
35%
level
27%
Calamocha scores more
38%

Calamocha at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Valdefierro host Calamocha

March 29, 2020: Valdefierro take on Calamocha in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Valdefierro host Calamocha at CDM Valdefierro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.