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Valdefierro vs Borja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Valdefierro
Valdefierro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Borja
Borja
9/18/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 5CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Valdefierro39%
×Draw26%
Borja35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdefierro
1.35
Borja
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 62 away

creates per match

Valdefierro
1.32
Borja
0.98

allows per match

Valdefierro
1.55
Borja
1.37

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par
Borja+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Borja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw
65%
Valdefierro or Borja
74%
Draw or Borja
61%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+
18%
Borja wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals
74%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
39%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
15%
Borja 1+ goals
72%
Borja 2+ goals
36%
Borja 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)
53%
Borja (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Borja away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.37 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Borja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Borja attack 0.98 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valdefierro scores more
39%
level
26%
Borja scores more
35%

Valdefierro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Valdefierro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Valdefierro 0–1 Borja

Borja beat Valdefierro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at CDM Valdefierro in Zaragoza.