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Valdefierro vs Binéfar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Valdefierro
Valdefierro
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Binéfar
Binéfar
9/8/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 3CDM Valdefierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Valdefierro34%
×Draw26%
Binéfar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valdefierro
1.27
Binéfar
1.41

Binéfar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 111 away

creates per match

Valdefierro
1.32
Binéfar
1.27

allows per match

Valdefierro
1.55
Binéfar
1.21

finishing

Valdefierro+0.00on par
Binéfar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valdefierro ↓

Binéfar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Valdefierro or draw
60%
Valdefierro or Binéfar
74%
Draw or Binéfar
66%

Winning margin

Valdefierro wins by 2+
15%
Binéfar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Valdefierro 1+ goals
72%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
36%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
14%
Binéfar 1+ goals
76%
Binéfar 2+ goals
41%
Binéfar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Valdefierro (draw refunded)
46%
Binéfar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valdefierro at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Binéfar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valdefierro attack 1.32 + Binéfar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Binéfar attack 1.27 + Valdefierro defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Valdefierro scores more
34%
level
26%
Binéfar scores more
40%

Binéfar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valdefierro vs Binéfar

Binéfar beat Valdefierro 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at CDM Valdefierro in Zaragoza.