Valbona 2–3 Pogradeci: Result & Stats

Valbona

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Pogradeci

1/25/2025

1st Division · Round 20Stadiumi Valbona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Valbona30%

×Draw25%

Pogradeci44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValbonaExpected goals in this matchPogradeci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.51

Valbona

1.21

Pogradeci

1.51

Pogradeci creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 73 away

1.00

creates per match

1.15

1.88

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Valbona

1.00

Pogradeci

1.15

allows per match

Valbona

1.88

Pogradeci

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valbona+0.00on par

Pogradeci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valbona ↓

Pogradeci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Valbona or draw

56%

Valbona or Pogradeci

75%

Draw or Pogradeci

70%

Winning margin

Valbona wins by 2+

13%

Pogradeci wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Valbona 1+ goals

70%

Valbona 2+ goals

34%

Valbona 3+ goals

12%

Pogradeci 1+ goals

78%

Pogradeci 2+ goals

44%

Pogradeci 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Valbona (draw refunded)

41%

Pogradeci (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valbona at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Pogradeci away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valbona attack 1.00 + Pogradeci defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Pogradeci attack 1.15 + Valbona defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valbona scores more

30%

level

25%

Pogradeci scores more

44%

Pogradeci at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pogradeci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff