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Valbona vs Erzeni Shijak — 1st Division 2019

Valbona
Valbona
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
9/11/20241st Division1st Division · Round 3Stadiumi Valbona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Valbona29%
×Draw26%
Erzeni Shijak45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valbona
1.15
Erzeni Shijak
1.51

Erzeni Shijak creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 55 away

creates per match

Valbona
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
1.15

allows per match

Valbona
1.88
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

finishing

Valbona+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valbona ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Valbona or draw
55%
Valbona or Erzeni Shijak
74%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
71%

Winning margin

Valbona wins by 2+
12%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Valbona 1+ goals
68%
Valbona 2+ goals
32%
Valbona 3+ goals
11%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
78%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
44%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Valbona (draw refunded)
39%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valbona at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valbona attack 1.00 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Valbona defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Valbona scores more
29%
level
26%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
45%

Erzeni Shijak at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valbona vs Erzeni Shijak

Valbona beat Erzeni Shijak 1-0 in 1st Division on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Valbona in Bajram Curri.