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Valbona vs Apolonia Fier — 1st Division 2019

Valbona
Valbona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
10/5/20241st Division1st Division · Round 7Stadiumi Valbona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Valbona28%
×Draw26%
Apolonia Fier46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valbona
1.08
Apolonia Fier
1.46

Apolonia Fier creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 95 away

creates per match

Valbona
1.00
Apolonia Fier
1.05

allows per match

Valbona
1.88
Apolonia Fier
1.17

finishing

Valbona+0.00on par
Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valbona ↓

Apolonia Fier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Valbona or draw
54%
Valbona or Apolonia Fier
74%
Draw or Apolonia Fier
72%

Winning margin

Valbona wins by 2+
11%
Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Valbona 1+ goals
66%
Valbona 2+ goals
29%
Valbona 3+ goals
10%
Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
77%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
43%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Valbona (draw refunded)
38%
Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valbona at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valbona attack 1.00 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Valbona defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valbona scores more
28%
level
26%
Apolonia Fier scores more
46%

Apolonia Fier at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Valbona 1–1 Apolonia Fier

Valbona and Apolonia Fier drew 1-1 in 1st Division on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Valbona in Bajram Curri.