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Valašské Meziříčí vs Kostelec na Hané — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Valašské Meziříčí
Valašské Meziříčí
CANC
14:00
Kostelec na Hané
Kostelec na Hané
9/8/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 6Stadion Valašské Meziřičí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valašské Meziříčí55%
×Draw22%
Kostelec na Hané23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valašské Meziříčí
2.00
Kostelec na Hané
1.24

Valašské Meziříčí creates 61% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

Valašské Meziříčí
1.87
Kostelec na Hané
0.93

allows per match

Valašské Meziříčí
1.55
Kostelec na Hané
2.13

finishing

Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par
Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valašské Meziříčí ↓

Kostelec na Hané →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Valašské Meziříčí or draw
77%
Valašské Meziříčí or Kostelec na Hané
78%
Draw or Kostelec na Hané
45%

Winning margin

Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+
32%
Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals
86%
Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals
59%
Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals
32%
Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals
71%
Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals
35%
Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)
70%
Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valašské Meziříčí at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Kostelec na Hané away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valašské Meziříčí attack 1.87 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kostelec na Hané attack 0.93 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Valašské Meziříčí scores more
55%
level
22%
Kostelec na Hané scores more
23%

Valašské Meziříčí at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Valašské Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valašské Meziříčí vs Kostelec na Hané — Match Preview

Valašské Meziříčí face Kostelec na Hané on September 8, 2024 in this 4. liga - Divizie E fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Valašské Meziříčí host Kostelec na Hané at Stadion Valašské Meziřičí.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.