Valašské Meziříčí 1–1 Jeseník: Result & Stats

Valašské Meziříčí

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jeseník

5/18/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 26Stadion Valašské Meziřičí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valašské Meziříčí53%

×Draw21%

Jeseník26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valašské MeziříčíExpected goals in this matchJeseník

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.41

Valašské Meziříčí

2.08

Jeseník

1.41

Valašské Meziříčí creates 48% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

2.09

creates per match

1.00

1.81

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Valašské Meziříčí

2.09

Jeseník

1.00

allows per match

Valašské Meziříčí

1.81

Jeseník

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par

Jeseník+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valašské Meziříčí ↓

Jeseník →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Valašské Meziříčí or draw

74%

Valašské Meziříčí or Jeseník

79%

Draw or Jeseník

47%

Winning margin

Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+

31%

Jeseník wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals

87%

Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals

61%

Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals

34%

Jeseník 1+ goals

76%

Jeseník 2+ goals

41%

Jeseník 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)

67%

Jeseník (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valašské Meziříčí at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Jeseník away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valašské Meziříčí attack 2.09 + Jeseník defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Valašské Meziříčí scores more

53%

level

21%

Jeseník scores more

26%

Valašské Meziříčí at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Valašské Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff