Våg 8–2 Sandnes Ulf II: Result & Stats

Våg

FT

8 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Sandnes Ulf II

4/7/2025

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 2Karuss kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Våg73%

×Draw15%

Sandnes Ulf II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VågExpected goals in this matchSandnes Ulf II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.19

Våg

3.00

Sandnes Ulf II

1.19

Våg creates 152% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.62

creates per match

0.92

1.46

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Våg

2.62

Sandnes Ulf II

0.92

allows per match

Våg

1.46

Sandnes Ulf II

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Våg+0.00on par

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Våg ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Våg or draw

88%

Våg or Sandnes Ulf II

85%

Draw or Sandnes Ulf II

27%

Winning margin

Våg wins by 2+

53%

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Våg 1+ goals

95%

Våg 2+ goals

79%

Våg 3+ goals

56%

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals

70%

Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals

33%

Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Våg (draw refunded)

86%

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Våg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Våg attack 2.62 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.00

Sandnes Ulf II attack 0.92 + Våg defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Våg scores more

73%

level

15%

Sandnes Ulf II scores more

12%

Våg at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Våg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff