Vaca Díez 0–1 Real Tomayapo: Result & Stats

Vaca Díez

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Tomayapo

10/9/2023

Primera División · Round 27Estadio Roberto Jordan Cuellár

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vaca Díez52%

×Draw23%

Real Tomayapo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vaca DíezExpected goals in this matchReal Tomayapo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.13

Vaca Díez

1.78

Real Tomayapo

1.13

Vaca Díez creates 58% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 89 away

1.63

creates per match

0.88

1.38

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Vaca Díez

1.63

Real Tomayapo

0.88

allows per match

Vaca Díez

1.38

Real Tomayapo

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaca Díez ↓

Real Tomayapo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vaca Díez or draw

76%

Vaca Díez or Real Tomayapo

77%

Draw or Real Tomayapo

48%

Winning margin

Vaca Díez wins by 2+

29%

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vaca Díez 1+ goals

83%

Vaca Díez 2+ goals

53%

Vaca Díez 3+ goals

26%

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

68%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

31%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vaca Díez (draw refunded)

68%

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaca Díez at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Real Tomayapo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.94 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaca Díez attack 1.63 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.78

Real Tomayapo attack 0.88 + Vaca Díez defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vaca Díez scores more

52%

level

23%

Real Tomayapo scores more

24%

Vaca Díez at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vaca Díez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff