Vaca Díez 2–2 Jorge Wilstermann: Result & Stats

Vaca Díez

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jorge Wilstermann

7/29/2023

Primera División · Round 21Estadio Roberto Jordan Cuellár

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vaca Díez45%

×Draw25%

Jorge Wilstermann30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vaca DíezExpected goals in this matchJorge Wilstermann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.25

Vaca Díez

1.57

Jorge Wilstermann

1.25

Vaca Díez creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 123 away

1.63

creates per match

1.12

1.38

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Vaca Díez

1.63

Jorge Wilstermann

1.12

allows per match

Vaca Díez

1.38

Jorge Wilstermann

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaca Díez ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vaca Díez or draw

70%

Vaca Díez or Jorge Wilstermann

75%

Draw or Jorge Wilstermann

55%

Winning margin

Vaca Díez wins by 2+

23%

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vaca Díez 1+ goals

79%

Vaca Díez 2+ goals

46%

Vaca Díez 3+ goals

21%

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

71%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

36%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vaca Díez (draw refunded)

60%

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaca Díez at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaca Díez attack 1.63 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Vaca Díez defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vaca Díez scores more

45%

level

25%

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

30%

Vaca Díez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vaca Díez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff