VAC 0–3 Csakvar: Result & Stats | League #272

VAC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Csakvar

V. Sejben 88'

B. Nándori 19', 16'

12/15/2019

League #272 · Round 21Balassagyarmati Műfüves Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

VAC44%

×Draw23%

Csakvar33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VACExpected goals in this matchCsakvar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.54

VAC

1.81

Csakvar

1.54

VAC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 67 away

2.14

creates per match

1.22

1.86

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

VAC

2.14

Csakvar

1.22

allows per match

VAC

1.86

Csakvar

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VAC+0.00on par

Csakvar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VAC ↓

Csakvar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

VAC or draw

67%

VAC or Csakvar

77%

Draw or Csakvar

56%

Winning margin

VAC wins by 2+

24%

Csakvar wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

VAC 1+ goals

84%

VAC 2+ goals

54%

VAC 3+ goals

27%

Csakvar 1+ goals

79%

Csakvar 2+ goals

45%

Csakvar 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

VAC (draw refunded)

57%

Csakvar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VAC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Csakvar away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VAC attack 2.14 + Csakvar defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.81

Csakvar attack 1.22 + VAC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

VAC scores more

44%

level

23%

Csakvar scores more

33%

VAC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "VAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

B. Nándori

19'

B. Nándori

46'

B. Szenes← P. Pölöskei

46'

A. Farkas← M. Madarász

59'

M. Magos← L. Géringer

65'

D. Kiprich← B. Daru

70'

B. Kasza← J. Bartos

84'

B. Pratsler← R. Baracskai

88'

V. Sejben

VAC

Csakvar

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Z. Bánföldi

46'▲B. Szenes←▼P. Pölöskei

59'▲M. Magos←▼L. Géringer

70'▲B. Kasza←▼J. Bartos

VAC substitutes

SzenesMagosKaszaSzalánszkiBenceSárosiHámori

Manager: E. Visinka

46'▲A. Farkas←▼M. Madarász

65'▲D. Kiprich←▼B. Daru

84'▲B. Pratsler←▼R. Baracskai

Csakvar substitutes

FarkasKiprichPratslerHermányMajorDeutschSipos

League #272: VAC 0–3 Csakvar

Csakvar beat VAC 3-0 in League #272 on December 15, 2019.

Goals: B. Nándori (16', 19'), V. Sejben (88').

The match was played at Balassagyarmati Műfüves Pálya in Balassagyarmat.

VAC vs Csakvar — League #272 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #272: VAC 0–3 Csakvar