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Vaajakoski vs Viikingit — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Vaajakoski
Vaajakoski
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viikingit
Viikingit
5/10/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 3Viitaniemi tekonurmi (Jyväskylä)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vaajakoski40%
×Draw23%
Viikingit37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaajakoski
1.65
Viikingit
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vaajakoski
1.70
Viikingit
1.55

allows per match

Vaajakoski
1.60
Viikingit
1.59

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par
Viikingit+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

Viikingit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw
63%
Vaajakoski or Viikingit
77%
Draw or Viikingit
60%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+
20%
Viikingit wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals
81%
Vaajakoski 2+ goals
49%
Vaajakoski 3+ goals
23%
Viikingit 1+ goals
79%
Viikingit 2+ goals
47%
Viikingit 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)
52%
Viikingit (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Viikingit away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.70 + Viikingit defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Viikingit attack 1.55 + Vaajakoski defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vaajakoski scores more
40%
level
23%
Viikingit scores more
37%

Vaajakoski at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vaajakoski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vaajakoski vs Viikingit

Vaajakoski and Viikingit drew 0-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 10, 2018.

The match was played at Viitaniemi tekonurmi (Jyväskylä).