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Vaajakoski vs Reipas — Suomen Cup 2018

Vaajakoski
Vaajakoski
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Reipas
Reipas
4/9/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundVehkahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vaajakoski5%
×Draw10%
Reipas85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaajakoski
0.67
Reipas
3.21

Reipas creates 379% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vaajakoski
1.00
Reipas
3.67

allows per match

Vaajakoski
2.75
Reipas
0.33

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par
Reipas+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

Reipas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–312%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw
15%
Vaajakoski or Reipas
90%
Draw or Reipas
95%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+
1%
Reipas wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals
49%
Vaajakoski 2+ goals
15%
Vaajakoski 3+ goals
3%
Reipas 1+ goals
96%
Reipas 2+ goals
82%
Reipas 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)
5%
Reipas (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Reipas away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.00 + Reipas defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Reipas attack 3.67 + Vaajakoski defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Vaajakoski scores more
5%
level
10%
Reipas scores more
85%

Reipas at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Reipas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vaajakoski vs Reipas

Reipas beat Vaajakoski 3-0 in Suomen Cup on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Vehkahalli in Jyväskylä.