Vaajakoski 5–0 PS Kemi Kings: Result & Stats

Vaajakoski

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

PS Kemi Kings

9/11/2021

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 11Vaajakosken urheilukenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vaajakoski61%

×Draw20%

PS Kemi Kings19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaajakoskiExpected goals in this matchPS Kemi Kings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.16

Vaajakoski

2.20

PS Kemi Kings

1.16

Vaajakoski creates 90% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 20 away

1.80

creates per match

0.85

1.46

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Vaajakoski

1.80

PS Kemi Kings

0.85

allows per match

Vaajakoski

1.46

PS Kemi Kings

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

PS Kemi Kings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw

81%

Vaajakoski or PS Kemi Kings

80%

Draw or PS Kemi Kings

39%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+

38%

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals

89%

Vaajakoski 2+ goals

64%

Vaajakoski 3+ goals

37%

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals

69%

PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals

32%

PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)

76%

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.80 + PS Kemi Kings defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.85 + Vaajakoski defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vaajakoski scores more

61%

level

20%

PS Kemi Kings scores more

19%

Vaajakoski at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vaajakoski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff