Vaajakoski 1–0 PK-37: Result & Stats

Vaajakoski

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

PK-37

5/18/2019

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Round 3Vaajakosken urheilukenttä (Vaajakoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vaajakoski59%

×Draw21%

PK-3720%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaajakoskiExpected goals in this matchPK-37

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.14

Vaajakoski

2.08

PK-37

1.14

Vaajakoski creates 82% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 22 away

1.80

creates per match

0.82

1.46

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Vaajakoski

1.80

PK-37

0.82

allows per match

Vaajakoski

1.46

PK-37

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par

PK-37+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

PK-37 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw

80%

Vaajakoski or PK-37

79%

Draw or PK-37

41%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+

36%

PK-37 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals

87%

Vaajakoski 2+ goals

61%

Vaajakoski 3+ goals

34%

PK-37 1+ goals

68%

PK-37 2+ goals

32%

PK-37 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)

74%

PK-37 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

PK-37 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.80 + PK-37 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.08

PK-37 attack 0.82 + Vaajakoski defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vaajakoski scores more

59%

level

21%

PK-37 scores more

20%

Vaajakoski at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vaajakoski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff