Vaajakoski 4–2 PEPO: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Vaajakoski

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

PEPO

4/12/2025

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundHuhtahalli TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vaajakoski14%

×Draw15%

PEPO71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaajakoskiExpected goals in this matchPEPO

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

3.08

Vaajakoski

1.33

PEPO

3.08

PEPO creates 132% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

3.42

2.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Vaajakoski

1.00

PEPO

3.42

allows per match

Vaajakoski

2.75

PEPO

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par

PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

PEPO →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw

29%

Vaajakoski or PEPO

85%

Draw or PEPO

86%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+

5%

PEPO wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals

74%

Vaajakoski 2+ goals

38%

Vaajakoski 3+ goals

15%

PEPO 1+ goals

95%

PEPO 2+ goals

81%

PEPO 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)

16%

PEPO (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

PEPO away — creates 3.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.00 + PEPO defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

PEPO attack 3.42 + Vaajakoski defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Vaajakoski scores more

14%

level

15%

PEPO scores more

71%

PEPO at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff