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Vaajakoski vs MyPa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

Vaajakoski
Vaajakoski
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
MyPa
MyPa
5/18/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 5Vaajakosken urheilukenttä (Vaajakoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vaajakoski50%
×Draw21%
MyPa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaajakoski
2.11
MyPa
1.59

Vaajakoski creates 33% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vaajakoski
1.70
MyPa
1.58

allows per match

Vaajakoski
1.60
MyPa
2.53

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw
71%
Vaajakoski or MyPa
79%
Draw or MyPa
50%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+
29%
MyPa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals
88%
Vaajakoski 2+ goals
62%
Vaajakoski 3+ goals
35%
MyPa 1+ goals
80%
MyPa 2+ goals
47%
MyPa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)
63%
MyPa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

MyPa away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.70 + MyPa defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.11

MyPa attack 1.58 + Vaajakoski defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vaajakoski scores more
50%
level
21%
MyPa scores more
29%

Vaajakoski at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vaajakoski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Vaajakoski 1–2 MyPa

MyPa beat Vaajakoski 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 18, 2018.

The match was played at Vaajakosken urheilukenttä (Vaajakoski).