Vaajakoski 3–1 MiPK: Result & Stats

Vaajakoski

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

MiPK

6/28/2018

Kakkonen - Lohko A · Round 11Vaajakosken urheilukenttä (Vaajakoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vaajakoski50%

×Draw22%

MiPK28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaajakoskiExpected goals in this matchMiPK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.42

Vaajakoski

1.94

MiPK

1.42

Vaajakoski creates 37% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

1.70

creates per match

1.24

1.60

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Vaajakoski

1.70

MiPK

1.24

allows per match

Vaajakoski

1.60

MiPK

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par

MiPK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

MiPK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw

72%

Vaajakoski or MiPK

78%

Draw or MiPK

50%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+

28%

MiPK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals

86%

Vaajakoski 2+ goals

58%

Vaajakoski 3+ goals

30%

MiPK 1+ goals

76%

MiPK 2+ goals

41%

MiPK 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)

64%

MiPK (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

MiPK away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.70 + MiPK defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.94

MiPK attack 1.24 + Vaajakoski defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vaajakoski scores more

50%

level

22%

MiPK scores more

28%

Vaajakoski at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vaajakoski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff