Vaajakoski 4–0 JPS: Result & Stats

Vaajakoski

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

JPS

S. Yahagi 59'

A. Hamalainen 53'

S. Kurkisuo 29'

M. Liimatainen 18' (pen)

8/7/2025

Kakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 16Vaajakosken urheilukenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vaajakoski75%

×Draw14%

JPS12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaajakoskiExpected goals in this matchJPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.28

1.28

Vaajakoski

3.28

JPS

1.28

Vaajakoski creates 156% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.11

creates per match

0.78

1.78

allows per match

4.44

creates per match

Vaajakoski

2.11

JPS

0.78

allows per match

Vaajakoski

1.78

JPS

4.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par

JPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

JPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw

88%

Vaajakoski or JPS

86%

Draw or JPS

25%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+

56%

JPS wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals

96%

Vaajakoski 2+ goals

83%

Vaajakoski 3+ goals

62%

JPS 1+ goals

72%

JPS 2+ goals

37%

JPS 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)

86%

JPS (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

JPS away — creates 0.78, concedes 4.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 2.11 + JPS defence 4.44 → ÷2 → 3.28

JPS attack 0.78 + Vaajakoski defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Vaajakoski scores more

75%

level

14%

JPS scores more

12%

Vaajakoski at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Vaajakoski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

M. LiimatainenPenalty

29'

S. Kurkisuo

53'

A. Hamalainen

55'

S. Arponen← L. Rainerma

59'

S. Yahagi

60'

S. Kurkisuo← S. Kurkisuo

60'

J. Berardinelli← J. Berardinelli

60'

S. Aatsinki← S. Aatsinki

60'

O. Sormunen← O. Sormunen

75'

A. Margaritidis← A. Margaritidis

77'

A. Eloranta

85'

J. Korolainen← J. Korolainen

85'

J. Peltoniemi← J. Peltoniemi

86'

A. Hamalainen← A. Hamalainen

86'

K. Silen← K. Silen

90+2'

V. Pyyny

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff