Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vaajakoski vs JJK — Suomen Cup 2018

Vaajakoski
Vaajakoski
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
JJK
JJKadvanced
P. U. Imonioro 45'
4/13/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128Vaajakosken keskuskentta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vaajakoski16%
×Draw18%
JJK66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaajakoski
1.07
JJK
2.38

JJK creates 122% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vaajakoski
1.00
JJK
2.00

allows per match

Vaajakoski
2.75
JJK
1.14

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par
JJK+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

JJK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw
34%
Vaajakoski or JJK
82%
Draw or JJK
84%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+
6%
JJK wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals
66%
Vaajakoski 2+ goals
29%
Vaajakoski 3+ goals
9%
JJK 1+ goals
91%
JJK 2+ goals
68%
JJK 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)
19%
JJK (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

JJK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.00 + JJK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

JJK attack 2.00 + Vaajakoski defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Vaajakoski scores more
16%
level
18%
JJK scores more
66%

JJK at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "JJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
P. U. Imonioro
Vaajakoski
JJK
Hugo Henriques
Manager: Hugo Henriques
Brian Page
Manager: Brian Page

Match Recap: Vaajakoski vs JJK

JJK beat Vaajakoski 1-0 in Suomen Cup on April 13, 2026.

Goals: P. U. Imonioro (45').

The match was played at Vaajakosken keskuskentta in Vaajakoski.