Vaajakoski 2–4 FC jazz: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Vaajakoski

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

FC jazz

L. Voikar 30'

S. Salim 5'

M. Etok 48'

Lyon Firmino 41'

T. Sasaki 39'

O. Helen 23'

8/31/2024

Ykkönen · Round 22Vaajakosken urheilukenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vaajakoski33%

×Draw22%

FC jazz45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaajakoskiExpected goals in this matchFC jazz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.98

Vaajakoski

1.67

FC jazz

1.98

FC jazz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 35 away

1.46

creates per match

1.66

2.31

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Vaajakoski

1.46

FC jazz

1.66

allows per match

Vaajakoski

2.31

FC jazz

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaajakoski+0.00on par

FC jazz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaajakoski ↓

FC jazz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Vaajakoski or draw

55%

Vaajakoski or FC jazz

78%

Draw or FC jazz

67%

Winning margin

Vaajakoski wins by 2+

16%

FC jazz wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Vaajakoski 1+ goals

81%

Vaajakoski 2+ goals

50%

Vaajakoski 3+ goals

23%

FC jazz 1+ goals

86%

FC jazz 2+ goals

59%

FC jazz 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)

42%

FC jazz (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaajakoski at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

FC jazz away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.89 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaajakoski attack 1.46 + FC jazz defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC jazz attack 1.66 + Vaajakoski defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vaajakoski scores more

33%

level

22%

FC jazz scores more

45%

FC jazz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC jazz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

22'

23'

30'

30'

39'

41'

48'

53'

62'

68'

70'

R. Häkkinen← V. Suihkonen

82'

L. Suutarinen← N. Pirttinen

82'

T. Koskiahde← B. Montonen

90+3'

E. Uusitalo← A. Luhtanen

90+3'

F. Lamminen← J. Lehto

Vaajakoski

FC

1

2

6

11

20

⚽

Helen

4

▼

Luhtanen

17

⚽

Etok

99

⚽

Sasaki

10

▼

Lehto

9

⚽

Firmino

77

Chinonso

25

Tuokkola

6

▼

Suihkonen

2

▼

Pirttinen

4

⚽

3

24

20

14

▼

Montonen

10

Janhunen

5

Halonen

11

⚽

Salim

Manager: A. Neuvonen

70'▲R. Häkkinen←▼V. Suihkonen

82'▲L. Suutarinen←▼N. Pirttinen

82'▲T. Koskiahde←▼B. Montonen

Vaajakoski substitutes

9Häkkinen27Suutarinen32Koskiahde13Toivari17Kovaqi18Kanerva

Manager: V. Ulanen

90+3'▲E. Uusitalo←▼A. Luhtanen

90+3'▲F. Lamminen←▼J. Lehto

FC jazz substitutes

8Uusitalo14Lamminen28Takala13Väkiparta16Barrett33Nieminen67Aydin