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V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
Preview
05:00
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
11/1/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13Peace Stadium
Big match
37%
V-varen Nagasaki
model favours
37%27%35%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki37%
×Draw27%
Tokyo Verdy35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.25
Tokyo Verdy
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 46 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.20
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.56
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
65%
V-varen Nagasaki or Tokyo Verdy
73%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
63%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
16%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
71%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
36%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
13%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
70%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
34%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
51%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.20 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
37%
level
27%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
35%

V-varen Nagasaki at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • V-varen Nagasaki win just 10% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Nagasaki
LWWLD
Verdy
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V-varen Nagasaki face Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)

J1 League returns with V-varen Nagasaki hosting Tokyo Verdy. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

V-varen Nagasaki host Tokyo Verdy at Peace Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.