Tokyo Verdy 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki: Result & Stats

Tokyo Verdy

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

V-varen Nagasaki

8/6/2022

J2 League · Round 30Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Tokyo Verdy37%

×Draw26%

V-varen Nagasaki36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokyo VerdyExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.28

Tokyo Verdy

1.31

V-varen Nagasaki

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 143 away

1.36

creates per match

1.48

1.08

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.36

V-varen Nagasaki

1.48

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.08

V-varen Nagasaki

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw

64%

Tokyo Verdy or V-varen Nagasaki

74%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

63%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

17%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

73%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

38%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

14%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

72%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

37%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

51%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 130 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more

37%

level

26%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

36%

Tokyo Verdy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff