V-varen Nagasaki 0–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

V-varen Nagasaki

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Renofa Yamaguchi

K. Kawano 14'

7/9/2023

J2 League · Round 25Transcosmos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki47%

×Draw27%

Renofa Yamaguchi26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

V-varen NagasakiExpected goals in this matchRenofa Yamaguchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.97

V-varen Nagasaki

1.42

Renofa Yamaguchi

0.97

V-varen Nagasaki creates 46% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 41 away

1.61

creates per match

0.93

1.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.61

Renofa Yamaguchi

0.93

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.00

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw

74%

V-varen Nagasaki or Renofa Yamaguchi

73%

Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi

53%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

23%

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

76%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

41%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

17%

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

62%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

25%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

65%

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.61 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.93 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

47%

level

27%

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

26%

V-varen Nagasaki at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

T. Igarashi

14'

K. Kawano↳ T. Mae

46'

T. Nagura← S. Satsukida

46'

Cristiano← A. Masuyama

46'

S. Otsuki← K. Kawano

53'

K. Noyori← M. Yoshioka

64'

S. Joppu← K. Tokura

64'

S. Takahashi← T. Sawada

68'

K. Yamase← T. Igarashi

70'

72'

81'

90+6'

90'

90'

S. Kobayashi← T. Tanaka

V-varen

Renofa

31

Terakado

15

A

14

5

2

6

▼

Yajima

11

▼

Tanaka

16

▼

Yoshioka

4

Kamigaki

20

⚽

▼

Kawano

32

▼

21

25

5

3

23

13

▼

Kato

19

▼

Sawada

8

▼

Masuyama

34

▼

Satsukida

6

Kuwasaki

27

▼

Tokura

Manager: Fábio Carille

46'▲T. Nagura←▼S. Satsukida

46'▲Cristiano←▼A. Masuyama

64'▲S. Joppu←▼K. Tokura

64'▲S. Takahashi←▼T. Sawada

72'▲G. Sehata←▼M. Kato

V-varen Nagasaki substitutes

14Nagura7Cristiano32Joppu28Takahashi37Sehata39Kaique1Tomizawa

Manager: J. Esnáider

46'▲S. Otsuki←▼K. Kawano

53'▲K. Noyori←▼M. Yoshioka

68'▲K. Yamase←▼T. Igarashi

90'▲G. Uemoto←▼S. Yajima

90'▲S. Kobayashi←▼T. Tanaka

Renofa Yamaguchi substitutes

13Otsuki26Noyori33Yamase47Uemoto28Kobayashi9Minagawa21Seki